2018 overwatch League – Odds Stage 3

2018 overwatch League – Odds Stage 3

What an exciting finale to the stage two playoffs. The Philadelphia Fusion showed the League what a formidable team that they have become, and made a fool of nearly everyone’s predictions. Storming into the final round of the playoffs they nearly pulled off a remarkable victory against the NYXL. They were so close, but yet so far. NYXL pulling a rabbit out of their hat in a reverse sweep to claim the Stage 2 prize money of $100,000USD.

We now turn our attention to the odds for the remainder of the season. Two stages completed, two left to go!

The playoffs will include 6 teams, made up of the winners from each division and the remaining 4 from both divisions.

The big 3, NYXL, Spitfire and Seoul, is predicted to easily make the playoffs. Barring an unforseen catastrophes these teams should steam roll through Stage 3 and 4 and easily qualify. Remember, the winner of each division will be guaranteed a place in the play offs, so I have placed Seoul at a higher percentage than NYXL and London. Seoul’s nearest rival in their division is the Gladiators, a good 4 games behind, placing Seoul at good odds to finish on top of the div. Sliding in fourth is the Fusion. They have the momentum and the belief that they can compete with the big 3. The question is whether they can maintain this on a consistent basis, and will meta changes be their down fall. In fact, besides the big 3, meta changes have a greater influence on all teams outcome for playoffs. How they can adapt and work as a team will be the biggest challenge.

Similarly the Gladiators; the inclusion of Fissure gave them a huge boost mid Stage 2 and propelled them up the leader table. Many predicted the Gladiators to make it to the Stage 2 play offs however they disappointingly fizzled out. Is the Fissure effect over? Boston has shown a little more consistency and therefore slides in just above Gladiators in the chances of making the playoffs. Rounding out are the next two teams of Outlaws and Valiant. These two are neck and neck, Outlaws losing their way towards the end of Stage 2 with only 5 wins vs the Stage 1, 7 wins.

The last 4 teams, have next to no chance of making it to the play offs (ok I lie, very little chance). The gap between the bottom tier and the mid tier is a chasm.  Yes, the Shock are going through significant roster changes by adding three new players, Architect, Moth and ChoHyoBin, and can make a burst up the leader board, but they will need time to adjust and have a lot of games to catch up on. The Dallas Fuel with all their distractions, have capitulated. Without a dramatic change in culture, I cannot see them moving up. Mayhem, yes, can pull off the “rare” upset… and I emphasize the word “rare”, and that’s about it. Shanghai Dragons, it would take a miracle.

Overwatch League Team Division Play off Odds Championship Odds Stage 1 Stage 2 Wins
New York Excelsior ATL 90% 25% 9 9 18
London Spitfire ATL 90% 20% 7 8 15
Seoul Dynasty PAC 95% 15% 7 7 14
Philadelphia Fusion ATL 25% 10% 6 7 13
Boston Uprising ATL 20% 5% 6 6 12
L.A. Gladiators PAC 20% 5% 4 6 10
Houtson Outlaws ATL 20% 5% 7 5 12
L.A. Valiant PAC 15% 5% 7 4 11
San Franscisco Shock PAC 5% 2% 3 3 6
Dallas Fuel PAC 1% 1% 3 2 5
Florida Mayhem ATL 1% 1% 1 3 4
Shanghai Dragons PAC 1% 0.5% 0 0 0

 

 

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