There are going to be various methods to determining a good Overwatch bet to place. Each Overwatch bettor will have their own preferred method and depth of analysis that they will conduct before placing a bet. Some may bet off a gut feel, while others will perform hours and hours of research and analysis. The latter is my preferred style, surfing the net and watching matches and taking notes.
I’m not going to splill out in detail the statistical modelling and assumptions that I use, but I do want to point out my basic philosophy about Overwatch betting at the end of seaon one.
Basic and simple Overwatch betting tips
Here are my tips for betting on Overwatch League
1. During season one of the Overwatch League you may have felt the urge to bet on the Shanghai Dragons to win. It’s awfully enticing because they are a fan favourite, and everyone wants them, and is willing them on for their first win. And of course, no team in any professional sport can lose for ever. As time passes and the losses mount up, the expectation that the elusive first win will come soon. You could be thinking, these Shanghai odds are great because that win is soon going to happen.
But NO! Do NOT bet on matches with the Shanghai Dragons. The Shanghai Dragons is on a historical run, being the worst team in American Sports as determined by the longest losing streak. Naturally it is tempting to place a bet on them winning soon. Because, damn it, they can’t just lose forever; right? Currently the payout odds of the Dragons winning a match is ranging between 5:1 to 10:1. In my opinion, these odds aren’t great. Their losing streak is so long (currently exceeding 30 losses straight) which means bookmakers should be paying odds of at least 30 to 1 if you use history as a guide. Until the Dragons win their first game, it is extremely difficult to judge or develop any pattern at all for the Shanghai Dragons.
Conversely, it may also be tempting to place a bet on the opposing team to win against the Shanghai Dragons. The payout for winning a match for the opposing team generally ranges between 1 in 100 to 5 in 100 to lose. With such a low payout, it’s not worth placing a bet on the opposing team unless it is a large sum of money. Large money on low return is not in my betting strategy, so I would avoid placing on bet on the opposing team as well.
If your thinking, but why not place a small bet? What’s the point? The return is so low, that it’s not worth the effort.
In summary, don’t place a bet on any matches with the Shanghai Dragons until they have won their first and perhaps a few matches.
2. Don’t always bet on the favourite if betting on the Overwatch League. The Overwatch League season 1 has been fantastic. There has been drama, close games, filthy battles to say the least. And of course upsets. Without upset, the League would be as boring as bat shit. And with that in mind, don’t always bet on the favourite. Roughly speaking, during each week there has been about 2 to 4 upset matches. It is hard to pick an upset, but with the right amount of analysis you maybe able to limit betting on favourites with an outcome of an upset. Knowing that favourite do not always win, again bet within your limits, bet small don’t bet big.
3. Team chemistry and will make a difference. Just like traditional sports, star players who are brilliant can take a team so far, yet without team chemistry (Dallas Fuel case in point) winning is difficult. Cultural differences, guidance by lead coaches and assistants also makes a difference, however I believe the greater influence is the player team chemistry. Perhaps this is the reason that the Shanghai Dragons have had a horrible start due to the language barrier and cultural differences when meshing Chinese and Korean players together? Only time will tell.
4. Betting on maps is really difficult. If you want to have fun and just see how lucky you are, then by all means go for it. Place a few bets on map results on a few matches. However, if you think you can accurately predict a match result with maps, then you are a genius. Tell me how you do it!
These are my four tips at the moment for betting on OWL. Enjoy the games, enjoy the action!